Navigating Uncertainty: A Call for Caution and Collaboration Amid Political and Economic Shifts

Its origin is less clear. Perhaps a group of British Diplomats in China and later politicians in England started it. Kennedy used it in a speech in 1966 at the University of Cape Town in South Africa titled the “Day of Affirmation Address.” He was talking about unrest and the ongoing civil rights movement — a positive message. He was also focused on the importance of youth involvement in society and politics and the danger and unrest that come from attempts to change. 

To me, the phrase has always been about opportunity and risk. We are indeed experiencing something “interesting” with our political leadership. This affects all SMACNA members, regardless of country. It also affects our partners at SMART, and at the national level, we are dedicated to working together to mitigate the challenges. We are all in this together.

Lately, I see a lot more risk than opportunity. As the son and grandson of a small businessman, I strongly believe in limited government and the importance of individual effort for success. That translates to being broadly sympathetic to the efforts to shrink the size of government and limit the excess spending that inevitably comes from the “worst system of government, except for all the rest” (thank you, Winston, for your wisdom). It does not lead to supporting an effort that is made up of kids wildly swinging machetes around to cut agencies and staff. The lack of thoughtfulness is astounding. Government has critical roles in many areas, and care must be taken to avoid chopping off essential limbs. 

The entire tariff discussion focuses my attention on the risks for our members and the world economy. Targeted tariffs that address specific problems are a valuable tool in international relations. They can help create level playing fields for industries, induce fair competition and serve wider geopolitical ends. Broad tariffs, such that we may be subject to in an attempt to solve imagined problems created by trade imbalances, imagined unfairness or internal budget problems, are simply silly. The Trump administration is doing everything it can to destroy the economy, kill jobs and force a realignment of world trade. Unfortunately, we are the front-line casualties of that effort. 

A realignment in global trade has been coming since the USSR fell. It was only a matter of time before isolationist elements in the Republican and Democratic parties would start pushing to end the post-World War II security guarantee the United States provided to global commerce. The clock on that spending began when the big enemy was vanquished. The post-WWII system relied on secure shipping. 

The world economy is built on the notion that we can move goods freely globally. America sacrificed some of the success that it could have had to raise the tide for the world. It worked amazingly well, ushering in the greatest prosperity that humanity has experienced. Many books have been written on this topic, and more will be published. 

I am old enough to have lived through the fall of the Berlin Wall and the “velvet” revolutions in Eastern Europe — and to feel how meaningful those changes were. At the time, I did not predict the end of this global commerce as we know it. Gen X may be one of the generations that live at the beginning and the end of a world order. 

The real-world impacts of the words coming out of the Trump administration will hurt. Metal prices have risen, and so have the costs of equipment. Vehicles are already more expensive in anticipation of tariffs. Projects are being canceled or pushed back. Members report layoffs due to the uncertainty and owner pullbacks. We are still having a good year, but that could change if this continues. We will do everything that we can to limit the effects. It is also important to remember that nothing is permanent, and damage done today can be repaired in the future. 

Please share your stories as we continue to navigate this very uncertain world. The documents about price increases, project issues and schedule changes have helped SMACNA explain to officials how tariffs and continuous changes impact our members & workers. When a significant change happens, the individual story often makes a difference. 

You can also support our work by becoming a PAC supporter. 

If you have not already done so, please go to SMACNA’s website and sign a prior authorization form. That will allow us to communicate more about politics and give you opportunities to engage with the Administration and Members of Congress. 

SMACNA has a very active schedule of events. Our next Fab Forum at McCusker-Gill is sold out in early April. Education programs like Business Management University and Project Managers Institute continue to sell out. The tech department is hosting many technical university programs. For something to look forward to, Convention Registration opens on April 24 at noon. Register early; we will sell out in Maui. I'm looking forward to a great line-up of education sessions and keynote speakers. See you there, if not before!